Hans Rosling TED Talk
Posted by StudioFiftyFour
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Re: Hans Rosling TED Talk April 08, 2015 |
I started to watch this, I think I've seen it before.
Is it where he keeps moving around 'boxes' saying things will reduce by this, this, etc.?
The issue I have with this idea is that the Math is wrong. He's applying simple Arithmetic to an issue that requires exponential multipliers at the least, if not even more complex (and non linear) Mathematics.
I'm too lazy and tired to try to lay any type of complex analysis on this.
To put it simply - where he is wrong is that he keeps dividing and discarding - and not accounting for those that are left - which will keep breeding exponentially.
Look at it this way - if your house had Termites - would you knock off half of them and then think the rest will either a) be manageable or b) eventually reduce? No, it don't work that way. Because what's left after any 'die offs' will still keep reproducing exponentially.
Another example - think if you cut your credit card debt in half - half keeps 'dying off' - think it'll eventually "stabilize"? Uh - think again. Because the remainder keeps accruing interest. Esp. if the interest rate is high (like a high breeding rate). You literally *can't* pay it off. If such thinking worked - Bankruptcy Atty's would not exist.
The man has no grasp of complex Math - even the most basic principles there of. He's using simple Arithmetic. That's where he's going wrong.
If this is the same thing I remember (I think it is, I watched apx. the first 20 seconds of it and recognized it) - I remember thinking, the first time I saw it - yeah, this guy is way off here.
eyes2
Is it where he keeps moving around 'boxes' saying things will reduce by this, this, etc.?
The issue I have with this idea is that the Math is wrong. He's applying simple Arithmetic to an issue that requires exponential multipliers at the least, if not even more complex (and non linear) Mathematics.
I'm too lazy and tired to try to lay any type of complex analysis on this.
To put it simply - where he is wrong is that he keeps dividing and discarding - and not accounting for those that are left - which will keep breeding exponentially.
Look at it this way - if your house had Termites - would you knock off half of them and then think the rest will either a) be manageable or b) eventually reduce? No, it don't work that way. Because what's left after any 'die offs' will still keep reproducing exponentially.
Another example - think if you cut your credit card debt in half - half keeps 'dying off' - think it'll eventually "stabilize"? Uh - think again. Because the remainder keeps accruing interest. Esp. if the interest rate is high (like a high breeding rate). You literally *can't* pay it off. If such thinking worked - Bankruptcy Atty's would not exist.
The man has no grasp of complex Math - even the most basic principles there of. He's using simple Arithmetic. That's where he's going wrong.
If this is the same thing I remember (I think it is, I watched apx. the first 20 seconds of it and recognized it) - I remember thinking, the first time I saw it - yeah, this guy is way off here.
eyes2|
Re: Hans Rosling TED Talk April 09, 2015 |
Quote
Zzelda
I started to watch this, I think I've seen it before.
Is it where he keeps moving around 'boxes' saying things will reduce by this, this, etc.?
The issue I have with this idea is that the Math is wrong. He's applying simple Arithmetic to an issue that requires exponential multipliers at the least, if not even more complex (and non linear) Mathematics.
I'm too lazy and tired to try to lay any type of complex analysis on this.
To put it simply - where he is wrong is that he keeps dividing and discarding - and not accounting for those that are left - which will keep breeding exponentially.
Look at it this way - if your house had Termites - would you knock off half of them and then think the rest will either a) be manageable or b) eventually reduce? No, it don't work that way. Because what's left after any 'die offs' will still keep reproducing exponentially.
Another example - think if you cut your credit card debt in half - half keeps 'dying off' - think it'll eventually "stabilize"? Uh - think again. Because the remainder keeps accruing interest. Esp. if the interest rate is high (like a high breeding rate). You literally *can't* pay it off. If such thinking worked - Bankruptcy Atty's would not exist.
The man has no grasp of complex Math - even the most basic principles there of. He's using simple Arithmetic. That's where he's going wrong.
If this is the same thing I remember (I think it is, I watched apx. the first 20 seconds of it and recognized it) - I remember thinking, the first time I saw it - yeah, this guy is way off here.
I had a similar reaction.
Even if we shipped truckloads full of birth control to developing nations, it would make little impact on the birthrate due to their reproduction strategy itself, which is, have lots and lots of kids, and if a few survive, great! You've successfully passed along your genes and are ready to die.
I feel like this guy doesn't really give any supporting data as to why the birthrate is just going to level off, especially in these places. Repeatedly throughout the video he states, "In year 'x,' this group won't be having as many kids." And the audience cheerfully acknowledges that statement without hesitation. Someone needs to raise their hand and say, "Wait a second... why? Why will the exponential reproduction stop?"
Personally I think the population WILL be curbed by violent conflict, disease, and widespread famine. That wouldn't be popular among this kind of crowd, though.
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